Presidential Race Predictions 2008
January 27, 2008 | Filed Under 00Publius Contributor, Democrats/Leftists, Elections, GOP, News, President, Warner Todd Huston | 2 Comments
-by Warner Todd Huston
I don’t usually like to make predictions like this because, historically this far out, it’s hard to get it right as so many things can change in the many months ahead. But I feel things are solidifying already. So, here it is. My prediction on who will be facing whom for the 2008 election for president.
GOP
Romney will win the nomination for the GOP. He has the delegates and that will just grow as Republicans realize that it is either Romney or McCain. Granted, both are horrible choices… but McCain is by far the worst or the two. As to who Romney will pick for VP, rumors are abound that he will go for Fred Thompson. This is an outside possibility as long as Thompson doesn’t get his heart set on running for Governor of Tennessee and as long as he feels VP is good enough for him. It is also a good choice for Romney because principled conservatives hate the man. Chosing Thompson would add badly needed credibility to the ticket. If Thompson does refuse or does not become the VP choice, I cannot guess who it will be otherwise.
Dem
Hillary will win for the Democrat Party and she will pick gov. Richardson for VP. She also will have more delegates in the long run. As to picking Richardson, after making so many blacks mad at her (and Bill) during this race because of her treatment of Obama, she will have to shore up her Hispanic constituents. They are a bigger voting block anyway. She will ignore her black voters and pander to the Hispanic ones.
The interesting thing here is that both candidates, Romney and Hillary Clinton, have large portions of their voters who don’t like them at all. Many conservatives will not be able to vote for the left of center Romney. His past support of abortion and his man, many, many flip-flops will keep principled voters away from him. And, Hillary has just alienated her black voters and that will probably continue now that Obama won South Carolina by such a large margin. I feel many blacks will not be enthusiastic for her once she wins the nomination and support will slip. But how far?
So, the question becomes, NOT which candidate has excited more people than the other to win election, but which one has peeved off the most! Has Clinton lost enough black votes to affect her chances, or has Romney lost enough conservatives to lose his bid against Hillary?
Other GOP VP choices
I think if Condi Rice ran with him it might help his ticket. But, I can say right here that Rice will refuse. There has been a large effort in the past to draft her and she refused to have anything at all to do with the various efforts. Not even any cagey reaction to the idea on her part. It was a firm, flat out no. So, I’d rule Rice out. Once W rides home she will ride home, too.
There are at least tow other real good candidates. Mike Pence Congressman of Indiana has been a stalwart conservative in the House. However, he has had his eye of leadership in the House. I sort of doubt he’d give that all up to become Vice President. As to Sarah Palin (Gov. of Alaska) that would be a great choice. She has done an amazing job and her resume is fantastic. But, I am not sure where her interest lies in leaving Alaska. I have never seen her try to step up higher than Alaska on the national scene. So, I seem to feel she is not very interested in stepping higher than gov of Alaska.
On the other hand, she would be a good choice if she were convinced to do it. I for one would support her.
But, one thing about Palin. She would be an obscure choice for most people. Few know her or her record. (It is a really, really good record, too). It would take some time for the greater electorate to get to know her and that is time and campaign money that Romney might not have to waste as he begins his fight against Hillary. Hillary will have more money than Romney to fund the campaign, so spending money on Romney’s VP candidate isn’t a optimal idea.
Next we have Haley Barbour, Gov of Mississippi who is a really good choice and one who would bring some conservative bonafides. He did a fantastic job during Katrina, so he’d bring that favorable opinion with him on a sore subject for the GOP.
Last we have former Lt. Gov of Maryland, Michael Steele. Steele is a pretty good choice, too. He’d bring not a few black votes toward the GOP, for sure. But he would not improve the conservative aspect of a ticket with Romney.
So, there you have it. My predictions. And I hope I am not speaking too soon.
____________
Warner Todd Huston is a Chicago based freelance writer, has been writing opinion editorials and social criticism since early 2001 and is featured on many websites such as newsbusters.org, townhall.com, New Media Journal, Men’s News Daily and the New Media Alliance among many, many others. Additionally, he has been a frequent guest on talk-radio programs to discuss his opinion editorials and current events. He has also written for several history magazines and appears in the new book “Americans on Politics, Policy and Pop Culture” which can be purchased on amazon.com. He is also the owner and operator of publiusforum.com. Feel free to contact him with any comments or questions : EMAIL Warner Todd Huston
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